Cramer: Why you should use your ‘mad money’ to buy some individual stocks here

Investors should think about buying some individual stocks as about a trillion dollars worth of companies are due to go public, CNBC’s Jim Cramer said Thursday.

Index funds, as promoted by the late John Bogle, typically beat most individual money managers in the long run, but Cramer said some stocks are popping as the major averages make little noise.

The top U.S. indexes all rose about 0.30 percent on the session.

“Starting with the Lyft IPO, I think individual stock picking is going to start making a bit of a comeback. I sense the excitement, the possibilities, but don’t leave it to just the IPOs,” the “Mad Money” host said. “There’s something good going on here in all sorts of high-quality companies. You just need to be curious, stop paying attention to politics, and pay attention to what you like and what you know, and I think you can make some mad money.”

Cramer recalled that some cloud stocks popped “dramatically” when they went public, and that investors made money off of Twitter’s and even Facebook’s IPOs. There has not been a group of household names going public lately, but when they do it starts out steady and then “heats up very fast,” he said.

Big names such as Lyft, Airbnb, and Uber are in the lineup this year. Brokers try to “entice you into the casino for the next one,” he added.

“They know that if they can price these IPOs at lower levels, where the demand far exceeds the supply, they can engineer a beautiful pop that will beckon more people to put in for the next deals,” Cramer said.

Additionally, investors can own some individual stocks to buy and sell after doing homework on the companies, he said. These stocks can be owned with your “mad money,” which Cramer explains as excess capital outside of retirement investments that can be used for picking securities.

The host highlighted that PVH popped nearly 15 percent, Lululemon spiked more than 14 percent, and Five Below climbed above 8 percent in Thursday’s session. He said the stock jumps at each of these companies could have been spotted

He recalled lessons he learned from investors David Darst, who is a frequent CNBC guest, and Peter Lynch, the former manager of the Magellan Fund at Fidelity.

“David tried to get you to look all around, talk to everybody—taxi drivers, passengers on a train, passerbys, people in elevators—wanted you to find out what they’re thinking, what they’re doing,” he said. “Peter Lynch said you need to buy the stocks of companies you know from your day-to-day after doing some homework, of course, to make sure the business is actually doing well.”

PVH, which owns fashion brands such as Tommy Hilfiger and Calvin Klein, was a buy because its CEO Manny Chirico is dependable and has been working on the one division that gave it a shortfall, he said.

Five Below, a growing discount store concept, is expanding nationally, which Lynch has written is a big reason to buy a stock, Cramer said.

Lululemon is a good buy just by doing some research, he added.

“Again, I love index funds. I think they’re the perfect vehicle for your retirement fund,” Cramer said. “But if you’ve got some extra mad money that you can afford to risk losing, I’m a big believer in picking stocks so long as you do the homework.”

Disclosure: Cramer’s charitable trust owns shares of Five Below.

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Can Small Cap Tailored Brands Go Business Casual?

On Monday, a Wall Street Journal article (Men Ditch Suits, and Retailers Struggle to Adapt) noted that the U.S. men’s suit market has shrunk 8% to $1.98 billion since 2015 (although the pace of the decline has moderated in recent years) with small cap men’s wear stock Tailored Brands (NYSE: TLRD) seeming to bear much of the brunt of changing consumer tastes. 

As the leading specialty retailer of men’s tailored clothing and largest men’s formalwear provider in the U.S. and Canada, small cap Tailored Brands was created following the 2014 acquisition of Jos. A. Bank by Men’s Wearhouse. The Company serves customers through an expansive omni-channel network that includes over 1,400 stores in the U.S. and Canada as well as branded e-commerce websites. Brands include Men’s Wearhouse, Jos. A. Bank, Joseph Abboud, Moores Clothing for Men and K&G plus the Company operates an international corporate apparel and workwear group consisting of Dimensions, Alexandra and Yaffy in the United Kingdom and Twin Hill in the United States.

Note that Tailored Brands has been without a CEO since September when its former chief retired and shares fell off hard (around 25%) two weeks ago when the Company reported fiscal fourth quarter and year ended February 2, 2019 results plus provided guidance for the first quarter of fiscal 2019: 

Net Sales Summary(a)


Net Sales
(U.S. dollars,
in millions)


% Total



Retail (a)       $712.4     (9.5%)     (1.5%)
Men’s Wearhouse (a)       $375.0     (9.6%)     (3.2%)
Jos. A. Bank (a)       $215.4     (6.7%)     (0.5%)
K&G       $ 73.9     (7.5%)     0.9%
Moores(a) (c)       $ 48.0     (8.8%)     2.8%
Corporate Apparel       $ 55.7     (23.3%)      
Total Company(d)       $768.1     (10.7%)      


Moving forward, the Company expects comparable sales for:

Men’s Wearhouse to be down 3% to 5% Jos. A. Bank to be down 3% to 5% Moores to be down 5% to 7% K&G to be flat to up 2%.

The Chairman stated:

“While all of our retail brands delivered positive comps for the full year, during the fourth quarter, comps at Men’s Wearhouse and Jos. A. Bank were down and this trend has continued into the first quarter of 2019. We attribute the current softness to both the macro-environment as well as the need for us to execute more quickly and effectively on our core growth strategies: deliver personalized products and services, create inspiring and seamless experiences in and across every channel, and build brands that stand for something more than just price.”

After earnings, B.Riley FBR analyst Susan Anderson cut her price target from $20 to $11 noting the particularly sharp same-store sales declines at Men’s Wearhouse and Jos A. Bank when she lowered her rating on Tailored Brands stock from Buy to Neutral. She said the drop in sales was “partially due to misalignment in product mix with the customer’s expectations, particularly in terms of a lower penetration of business casual options.”

Anderson also added in a phone interview with Barron’s that the Men’s casual is an oversaturated market while Tailored Brands still has “too many stores.” Plus:

“It’s even more difficult for them than these smaller retailers that really have nothing to lose. It’s really important that they drive loyalty and cater to the consumer’s needs… They’ve been slow to move toward higher penetration of business casual. They could potentially have a higher mix. I think it’s definitely a move in the right direction, but it could be an image for the consumer that they have a change.”

The Wall Street Journal did note that at Jos. A. Bank’s newly renovated Midtown Manhattan store, the ground floor is dedicated to jeans, khakis, dress shirts and blazers while suits are relegated to the upper level. They also quoted Mary Beth Blake, Jos. A. Bank’s brand president, as saying that tailored clothing retailers have even more of a reason to exist now that suits are out of favor:

“It’s harder for men to dress business casual. They need more assistance… We want to send the message that we can help with more than just suits”

That does seem to make sense and remember: Its hard enough to buy a suit off the rack that actually looks good on you – so forget buying one over the Internet as it probably needs tailoring (although the Company will be increasing its e-commerce presence). 

Nevertheless, it could still be a long time before Tailored Brands can safely be considered as a turnaround play.

Top Medical Stocks For 2019

There’s perhaps no social program in the U.S. that’s relied upon more than Social Security. With zero disrespect to Medicare, which primarily helps to partially cover big-dollar medical expenses for seniors during their golden years, no social program does more than Social Security.

According to the Social Security Administration, more than 3 out of 5 current retirees leans on the program for at least half of their monthly income. Then there’s the analysis from the Center on Budget and Policy Priorities that finds Social Security income is responsible for keeping 22.1 million beneficiaries above the federal poverty line, including 15.1 million retired workers. It’s simply that important.

Image source: Getty Images.

Top Medical Stocks For 2019: Synacor, Inc.(SYNC)

Advisors’ Opinion:

  • [By Shane Hupp]

    HealthStream (NASDAQ: SYNC) and Synacor (NASDAQ:SYNC) are both small-cap computer and technology companies, but which is the superior business? We will contrast the two businesses based on the strength of their institutional ownership, earnings, analyst recommendations, valuation, dividends, risk and profitability.

  • [By Ethan Ryder]

    SVMK (NASDAQ:SVMK) and Synacor (NASDAQ:SYNC) are both small-cap computer and technology companies, but which is the superior investment? We will compare the two businesses based on the strength of their risk, valuation, analyst recommendations, profitability, earnings, dividends and institutional ownership.

  • [By Joseph Griffin]

    Syncona Ltd (LON:SYNC) announced a dividend on Thursday, June 14th, Upcoming.Co.Uk reports. Investors of record on Thursday, June 21st will be paid a dividend of GBX 2.30 ($0.03) per share on Monday, July 30th. This represents a yield of 1.02%. The ex-dividend date is Thursday, June 21st. The official announcement can be seen at this link.

  • [By Logan Wallace]

    Get a free copy of the Zacks research report on Synacor (SYNC)

    For more information about research offerings from Zacks Investment Research, visit


    For the details of INTEL CORP’s stock buys and sells, go to

    These are the top 5 holdings of INTEL CORPCloudera Inc (CLDR) – 26,065,827 shares, 92.26% of the total portfolio. Borqs Technologies Inc (BRQS) – 3,799,172 shares, 5.42% of the total portfolio. ForeScout Technologies Inc (FSCT) – 257,756 shares, 1.37% of the total portfolio. Aquantia Corp (AQ) – 161,492 shares, 0.42% of the total portfolio. Synacor Inc (SYNC) – 866,884 shares, 0.23% of the total portfolio. New

  • [By Stephan Byrd]

    Media coverage about Synacor (NASDAQ:SYNC) has trended somewhat positive recently, according to Accern. The research group identifies positive and negative press coverage by reviewing more than twenty million news and blog sources in real-time. Accern ranks coverage of publicly-traded companies on a scale of -1 to 1, with scores nearest to one being the most favorable. Synacor earned a coverage optimism score of 0.05 on Accern’s scale. Accern also assigned news coverage about the information services provider an impact score of 47.6409011491603 out of 100, indicating that recent press coverage is somewhat unlikely to have an effect on the company’s share price in the immediate future.

Top Medical Stocks For 2019: Cohen & Steers Select Preferred and Income Fund, Inc.(PSF)

Advisors’ Opinion:

  • [By Max Byerly]

    Media stories about Cohen & Steers Select Pref & Inc Fd (NYSE:PSF) have trended positive recently, according to Accern Sentiment. The research firm ranks the sentiment of press coverage by reviewing more than 20 million news and blog sources in real time. Accern ranks coverage of publicly-traded companies on a scale of negative one to positive one, with scores closest to one being the most favorable. Cohen & Steers Select Pref & Inc Fd earned a media sentiment score of 0.39 on Accern’s scale. Accern also gave headlines about the company an impact score of 48.661768322942 out of 100, meaning that recent press coverage is somewhat unlikely to have an effect on the stock’s share price in the near future.

Top Medical Stocks For 2019: First Citizens BancShares, Inc.(FCNCA)

Advisors’ Opinion:

  • [By Max Byerly]

    American Century Companies Inc. reduced its holdings in First Citizens BancShares (NASDAQ:FCNCA) by 4.0% in the 1st quarter, according to its most recent 13F filing with the Securities and Exchange Commission (SEC). The firm owned 31,209 shares of the bank’s stock after selling 1,294 shares during the quarter. American Century Companies Inc. owned about 0.26% of First Citizens BancShares worth $12,897,000 at the end of the most recent quarter.

  • [By Stephan Byrd]

    Bessemer Group Inc. reduced its position in First Citizens BancShares Inc. (NASDAQ:FCNCA) by 6.4% in the 4th quarter, according to its most recent Form 13F filing with the Securities and Exchange Commission (SEC). The institutional investor owned 4,400 shares of the bank’s stock after selling 300 shares during the quarter. Bessemer Group Inc.’s holdings in First Citizens BancShares were worth $1,659,000 as of its most recent SEC filing.

  • [By Stephan Byrd]

    Capital City Bank Group (NASDAQ: CCBG) and First Citizens BancShares (NASDAQ:FCNCA) are both finance companies, but which is the superior business? We will contrast the two businesses based on the strength of their valuation, profitability, dividends, risk, institutional ownership, earnings and analyst recommendations.

Top Medical Stocks For 2019: Kirby Corporation(KEX)

Advisors’ Opinion:

  • [By Stephan Byrd]

    Here are some of the news articles that may have effected Accern’s rankings:

    Get Kirby alerts:

    Vanessa Kirby doesn’t feel famous ( Investors Purchase Large Volume of Kirby Put Options (KEX) ( ‘The Crown’s’ Vanessa Kirby Joins Dwayne Johnson in ‘Fast and Furious’ Spinoff (EXCLUSIVE) ( Noteworthy Monday Option Activity: MDXG, VMW, KEX ( Kirby Corporation To Announce 2018 Second Quarter Results On July 25, 2018 With Conference Call On July 26, 2018 (

    A number of analysts have commented on the company. Stifel Nicolaus boosted their target price on Kirby from $96.00 to $103.00 and gave the stock a “buy” rating in a research report on Friday, May 25th. Zacks Investment Research upgraded Kirby from a “hold” rating to a “buy” rating and set a $96.00 target price on the stock in a research report on Wednesday, May 2nd. Wells Fargo & Co boosted their target price on Kirby from $89.00 to $100.00 and gave the stock an “outperform” rating in a research report on Tuesday, May 1st. ValuEngine downgraded Kirby from a “buy” rating to a “hold” rating in a research report on Monday. Finally, OTR Global upgraded Kirby to a “positive” rating in a research report on Thursday, March 29th. Two investment analysts have rated the stock with a sell rating, four have given a hold rating and six have assigned a buy rating to the company’s stock. Kirby has an average rating of “Hold” and a consensus target price of $86.44.

  • [By Logan Wallace]

    Kirby (NYSE: KEX) and Teekay Tankers (NYSE:TNK) are both transportation companies, but which is the better stock? We will contrast the two companies based on the strength of their institutional ownership, analyst recommendations, risk, earnings, dividends, valuation and profitability.

  • [By Max Byerly]

    Swiss National Bank increased its stake in shares of Kirby Co. (NYSE:KEX) by 18.1% during the 1st quarter, according to its most recent Form 13F filing with the Securities and Exchange Commission (SEC). The fund owned 26,057 shares of the shipping company’s stock after purchasing an additional 4,000 shares during the quarter. Swiss National Bank’s holdings in Kirby were worth $2,005,000 at the end of the most recent quarter.

  • [By Logan Wallace]

    Kirby Co. (NYSE:KEX) was the recipient of some unusual options trading on Thursday. Stock traders purchased 807 put options on the company. This is an increase of approximately 1,394% compared to the average daily volume of 54 put options.

  • [By Joseph Griffin]

    Kirby Co. (NYSE:KEX) Director Richard Ross Stewart sold 2,500 shares of the business’s stock in a transaction on Friday, March 1st. The stock was sold at an average price of $74.67, for a total transaction of $186,675.00. Following the completion of the sale, the director now owns 19,831 shares in the company, valued at approximately $1,480,780.77. The sale was disclosed in a legal filing with the SEC, which can be accessed through this link.

Top Medical Stocks For 2019: Simulations Plus, Inc.(SLP)

Advisors’ Opinion:

  • [By Ethan Ryder]

    Liberum Capital reiterated their buy rating on shares of Sylvania Platinum (LON:SLP) in a research report released on Thursday morning.

    SLP opened at GBX 20.50 ($0.27) on Thursday. Sylvania Platinum has a 1-year low of GBX 8.75 ($0.11) and a 1-year high of GBX 18.75 ($0.25).

  • [By Stephan Byrd]

    Simulations Plus (NASDAQ:SLP) and CSRA (NYSE:CSRA) are both computer and technology companies, but which is the superior stock? We will contrast the two businesses based on the strength of their profitability, dividends, analyst recommendations, earnings, institutional ownership, risk and valuation.

  • [By Shane Hupp]

    Simulations Plus, Inc. (NASDAQ:SLP) – Analysts at Taglich Brothers increased their FY2019 earnings per share estimates for shares of Simulations Plus in a report released on Thursday, July 19th. Taglich Brothers analyst H. Halpern now anticipates that the technology company will earn $0.52 per share for the year, up from their previous estimate of $0.51.

  • [By Shane Hupp]

    Simulations Plus (NASDAQ: SLP) and NetScout Systems (NASDAQ:NTCT) are both computer and technology companies, but which is the better stock? We will compare the two businesses based on the strength of their risk, earnings, valuation, profitability, dividends, institutional ownership and analyst recommendations.

  • [By Stephan Byrd]

    Mattersight (NASDAQ: MATR) and Simulations Plus (NASDAQ:SLP) are both small-cap computer and technology companies, but which is the better investment? We will compare the two businesses based on the strength of their dividends, profitability, valuation, risk, institutional ownership, earnings and analyst recommendations.

  • [By Stephan Byrd]

    Simulations Plus, Inc. (NASDAQ:SLP) Director Walter S. Woltosz sold 18,500 shares of the business’s stock in a transaction dated Thursday, September 27th. The shares were sold at an average price of $19.92, for a total value of $368,520.00. Following the completion of the transaction, the director now directly owns 5,417,908 shares of the company’s stock, valued at $107,924,727.36. The transaction was disclosed in a legal filing with the Securities & Exchange Commission, which is available at the SEC website.

Top 5 Heal Care Stocks To Own Right Now

The jailed CEO of Volkswagen luxury brand Audi has lost his job.

Volkswagen Group said Tuesday that it terminated Rupert Stadler, who has been in the custody of German authorities since he was arrested in June in connection with his alleged involvement in the automaker’s emissions scandal.

The boards of Volkswagen and Audi said they reached “an agreement with Rupert Stadler on the termination” of his employment, effective immediately.

“Due to his ongoing pretrial detention, he is unable to fulfill his duties as a member of the board of management and wishes to concentrate on his defense,” Volkswagen said in a statement. 

More: Electric car wars: Audi’s new e-tron set to challenge Tesla Model X, Jaguar I-PACE

More: Audi kills its manual-transmission cars: How America lost its love for the stick shift

Top 5 Heal Care Stocks To Own Right Now: tronc, Inc. (TRNC)

Advisors’ Opinion:

  • [By Douglas A. McIntyre]

    Tronc Inc. (NASDAQ: TRNC), the owner of the Lost Angeles Times, agreed to sell the paper to billionaire Patrick Soon-Shiong, who is also one of Tronc’s largest shareholders. The deal, for $500 million and the assumption of about $90 million in pension liabilities, was announced on February 7. The Federal Trade Commission and U.S. Department of Justice blessed the deal on March 7, almost two months ago.

  • [By Douglas A. McIntyre]

    Shares of newspaper company Tronc Inc. (NASDAQ: TRNC) rose on a rumored buyout. According to The New York Post:

    Tronc shares shot up again on Thursday with the news that the private equity firm Donerail Group is the company that is eyeing the owner of the Chicago Tribune, New York Daily News, Baltimore Sun and other papers for a takeover.

  • [By Douglas A. McIntyre]

    The sale of the Los Angeles Times and several smaller newspapers by Tronc Inc. (NASDAQ: TRNC) to Dr. Patrick Soon-Shiong closed after months of worry.

  • [By Douglas A. McIntyre]

    An arrangement for the largest shareholder of publisher Tronc Inc. (NASDAQ: TRNC) to sell his stock will not go through. According to The Wall Street Journal:

Top 5 Heal Care Stocks To Own Right Now: Ace Limited(ACE)

Advisors’ Opinion:

  • [By Ethan Ryder]

    Ace (CURRENCY:ACE) traded 3.5% lower against the US dollar during the 1-day period ending at 21:00 PM E.T. on March 1st. Ace has a market capitalization of $1.15 million and $364,742.00 worth of Ace was traded on exchanges in the last day. One Ace token can currently be purchased for $0.12 or 0.00001606 BTC on cryptocurrency exchanges. Over the last week, Ace has traded up 2.4% against the US dollar.

  • [By Joseph Griffin]

    ACE (TokenStars) (CURRENCY:ACE) traded 10.1% higher against the dollar during the twenty-four hour period ending at 21:00 PM ET on October 13th. One ACE (TokenStars) token can currently be purchased for approximately $0.0571 or 0.00000912 BTC on exchanges. ACE (TokenStars) has a market capitalization of $666,377.00 and $320,387.00 worth of ACE (TokenStars) was traded on exchanges in the last day. Over the last seven days, ACE (TokenStars) has traded 19.7% lower against the dollar.

  • [By Max Byerly]

    Ace (CURRENCY:ACE) traded 3.5% lower against the US dollar during the 24-hour period ending at 22:00 PM ET on February 19th. Over the last week, Ace has traded up 2.4% against the US dollar. One Ace token can now be bought for approximately $0.12 or 0.00001606 BTC on exchanges. Ace has a market capitalization of $1.15 million and $364,742.00 worth of Ace was traded on exchanges in the last 24 hours.

  • [By Joseph Griffin]

    Ace (CURRENCY:ACE) traded down 7.8% against the US dollar during the 24-hour period ending at 17:00 PM ET on July 9th. One Ace token can currently be bought for approximately $0.12 or 0.00001856 BTC on major cryptocurrency exchanges. Ace has a market capitalization of $1.15 million and $205,611.00 worth of Ace was traded on exchanges in the last 24 hours. During the last seven days, Ace has traded down 0.4% against the US dollar.

  • [By Ethan Ryder]

    Ace (CURRENCY:ACE) traded down 3.5% against the U.S. dollar during the 1 day period ending at 22:00 PM E.T. on September 13th. Over the last seven days, Ace has traded 2.4% higher against the U.S. dollar. Ace has a total market capitalization of $1.15 million and $364,742.00 worth of Ace was traded on exchanges in the last day. One Ace token can currently be bought for $0.12 or 0.00001606 BTC on major exchanges.

Top 5 Heal Care Stocks To Own Right Now: Reliance Steel & Aluminum Co.(RS)

Advisors’ Opinion:

  • [By Shane Hupp]

    Reliance Steel & Aluminum Co (NYSE:RS) hit a new 52-week high and low on Thursday . The company traded as low as $97.41 and last traded at $94.18, with a volume of 15817 shares trading hands. The stock had previously closed at $96.27.

  • [By Motley Fool Transcribers]

    Reliance Steel And Aluminum Co  (NYSE:RS)Q4 2018 Earnings Conference CallFeb. 21, 2019, 11:00 a.m. ET

    Prepared Remarks Questions and Answers Call Participants
    Prepared Remarks:


  • [By Logan Wallace]

    Shares of Reliance Steel & Aluminum Co (NYSE:RS) have been assigned an average rating of “Hold” from the twelve analysts that are presently covering the company, reports. Two equities research analysts have rated the stock with a sell recommendation, six have assigned a hold recommendation and four have given a buy recommendation to the company. The average 12-month price objective among brokers that have covered the stock in the last year is $91.88.

  • [By Joseph Griffin]

    American Century Companies Inc. grew its stake in Reliance Steel & Aluminum Co (NYSE:RS) by 2.4% during the first quarter, according to its most recent 13F filing with the Securities and Exchange Commission (SEC). The institutional investor owned 31,780 shares of the industrial products company’s stock after acquiring an additional 748 shares during the period. American Century Companies Inc.’s holdings in Reliance Steel & Aluminum were worth $2,725,000 at the end of the most recent reporting period.

  • [By Logan Wallace]

    Reliance Steel & Aluminum Co. (NYSE:RS) saw a large increase in short interest in April. As of April 30th, there was short interest totalling 1,297,744 shares, an increase of 48.1% from the April 13th total of 876,450 shares. Approximately 1.9% of the shares of the stock are short sold. Based on an average trading volume of 568,500 shares, the short-interest ratio is presently 2.3 days.

Top 5 Heal Care Stocks To Own Right Now: Nexstar Broadcasting Group Inc.(NXST)

Advisors’ Opinion:

  • [By Shane Hupp]

    Barrington Research reaffirmed their buy rating on shares of Nexstar Media Group (NASDAQ:NXST) in a report issued on Tuesday. They currently have a $110.00 target price on the stock. Barrington Research also issued estimates for Nexstar Media Group’s Q2 2019 earnings at $1.84 EPS, Q3 2019 earnings at $1.67 EPS, Q4 2019 earnings at $2.07 EPS, Q1 2020 earnings at $1.51 EPS, Q2 2020 earnings at $2.40 EPS, Q3 2020 earnings at $2.96 EPS, Q4 2020 earnings at $4.49 EPS and FY2021 earnings at $9.10 EPS.

  • [By Shane Hupp]

    Nexstar Media Group Inc (NASDAQ:NXST) – Research analysts at B. Riley decreased their Q3 2018 EPS estimates for Nexstar Media Group in a research note issued on Thursday, September 6th. B. Riley analyst B. Crockett now anticipates that the company will post earnings per share of $2.07 for the quarter, down from their previous estimate of $2.19. B. Riley currently has a “Buy” rating and a $92.00 price objective on the stock. B. Riley also issued estimates for Nexstar Media Group’s Q4 2018 earnings at $3.22 EPS, FY2018 earnings at $8.14 EPS, FY2019 earnings at $7.14 EPS and FY2020 earnings at $10.51 EPS.

  • [By Max Byerly]

    Nexstar Media Group (NASDAQ:NXST) was upgraded by analysts at BidaskClub from a hold rating to a buy rating.

    Oritani Financial (NASDAQ:ORIT) was upgraded by analysts at BidaskClub from a sell rating to a hold rating.

  • [By Stephan Byrd]

    Nexstar Media Group Inc (NASDAQ:NXST) insider Andrew Alford sold 150 shares of the company’s stock in a transaction on Monday, August 20th. The shares were sold at an average price of $79.71, for a total transaction of $11,956.50. Following the transaction, the insider now owns 1,520 shares of the company’s stock, valued at $121,159.20. The transaction was disclosed in a filing with the SEC, which is available through this hyperlink.

  • [By Stephan Byrd]

    Nexstar Media Group (NASDAQ:NXST) had its price target cut by B. Riley to $87.00. They currently have a buy rating on the stock.

    Ralph Lauren (NYSE:RL) was downgraded by analysts at Zacks Investment Research from a buy rating to a hold rating. According to Zacks, “Ralph Lauren outperformed the industry in the past six months backed by robust bottom-line performance in recent quarters. Notably, third-quarter fiscal 2018 marked the company’s 12th consecutive earnings beat while sales lagged estimates after a beat in the previous quarter. Additionally, the company’s Way Forward Plan is on track, and it remains keen on bolstering digital and international presence. Also, the company has been gaining from favorable geographic and channel mix shifts along with lower promotions and reduced product costs. Further, management adjusted fiscal 2018 outlook to account for the positive currency rates, which are likely to aid revenues and operating margins. However, its North America business continues to suffer due to distribution and brand exits, planned reduction in shipments and promotions to enhance the quality of sales, and lower customer demand.”

Top 5 Heal Care Stocks To Own Right Now: Embraer-Empresa Brasileira de Aeronautica(ERJ)

Advisors’ Opinion:

  • [By Rich Smith]

    I did it. I took my own advice, and bought Embraer (NYSE:ERJ) stock.

    Last month, after learning that investment banker Morgan Stanley had recommended buying shares of Brazilian plane maker Embraer, I decided to take a look at the stock myself. Morgan Stanley, you see, was of the opinion that investors were “attributing too little value to ERJ’s Executive/Defense Divisions,” and the banker was attracted by the stock’s sell-off after Boeing bid less than expected to acquire control over Embraer’s larger commercial division.

  • [By Lou Whiteman]

    The Air Force on Aug. 3 posted notice of plans to acquire a fleet of light attack planes beginning in late 2019, with a formal request for proposal expected in December. The notice said that only the AT-6 and the A-29, a rival made by Embraer (NYSE:ERJ) and Sierra Nevada, will be considered.

  • [By Shane Hupp]

    Embraer SA (NYSE:ERJ) was the target of a significant increase in short interest in the month of May. As of May 31st, there was short interest totalling 2,590,931 shares, an increase of 75.7% from the May 15th total of 1,475,014 shares. Based on an average daily trading volume, of 856,087 shares, the short-interest ratio is presently 3.0 days.

  • [By Jim Crumly]

    As for individual stocks, Boeing (NYSE:BA) and Embraer (NYSE:ERJ) announced a joint venture, and Micron Technology (NASDAQ:MU) assuaged concerns about a Chinese court ruling.

  • [By Paul Ausick]

    Before turning to the scoreboard, one item of special interest is an order from United Airlines for 25 Embraer S.A. (NYSE: ERJ) E-175s and four Boeing 787 Dreamliners. Just a week ago, Boeing and Embraer announced a partnership that eventually will result in Boeing controlling the commercial jet business of Embraer. The operative word there is “eventually.”

Next-Gen Peugeot 208: An Electric Game Changer For France?

Peugeot (OTCPK:PEUGF) has officially introduced the new 208 or 208 II to the world of hatchbacks at the Geneva Car Show 2019. The car will be available to customers later this year in June. It could be a game changer not only for the world of hatchbacks, but also for the car manufacturer, as it could reverse the trend of declining 208 sales. But why is that?

Ever since it was introduced, the 2-series is a highly successful, high-volume series for the car manufacturer. Since the inception of the famous 206 in 1998, it sold roughly 10 million times, whereas its predecessor, the legendary 205, sold 5.2 million times. However, sales figures for the 207 were disappointing with just roughly 2.2 million units sold, and even the first-gen 208 does not come even close to the sales figures of the well-known 206. So why should investors be optimistic about the 208 II?

Peugeot announced that it will offer the 208 II not only as a gasoline or diesel version, but also as a fully electric vehicle for a price not yet specified. The e-208 will offer its drivers a range of 340 km (WLTP), which is far more generous than the range of the so far biggest selling EV-hatchback in Europe: the Renault Zoe (OTCPK:RNLSY). In fact, the Zoe is not only the biggest selling EV-hatchback in Europe, but also it’s the most successful EV in any class so far (as of 03/29/19). One of the reasons for that is its modest price of roughly 22,000 euros, and its modest size that makes it easy to navigate and park on the narrow and crowded streets that are so common in European cities. Yet its range of just 300km (WLTP) gives the new e-208 a certain edge over the Zoe with an additional 40km. And given that the 208 II is a city car just like its rival, a range of 340km should do for an entire week of short-haul, inner-city commuting.

And there is another reason that very likely makes the e-208 so much more appealing. Whereas sales of the Zoe are impressive for an EV – it sold 14,614 in 2016, 31,932 in 2017 and 39,469 in 2018 – the Zoe cannot build on the popularity and reputation of the 2-series. Because of the modest price, the non-EV 2-series seems to be especially popular among younger drivers. The 205 was well known for the successes of its rally version, the 206 was featured in the European versions of the then popular video games Need For Speed Underground and Need For Speed Underground 2, and the current 208 is featured on Gran Turismo Sport.

Furthermore, the more aggressive style of the 208 II compared to the Zoe (the front features a wide black grill and the rear features narrow lights that give it a style similar to the new Porsche Macan (OTCPK:POAHF)) make it seem more appealing to the eyes of future customers than the rather cute and curvy front and rear styling of the Zoe with its soft lines.

And with this subjective advantage of design over the Zoe, the 208 could alter the perception of current EVs: That they are either expensive like a Tesla (NASDAQ:TSLA) or a Jaguar I-Pace or not really easy to the eye like the Zoe. I do, of course, acknowledge that this is a highly subjective point, but then again what makes you decide what car to buy? Facts and numbers, or sheer psychology?

However, if we look at the sales figures of 2018 and 2017, it seems reasonable to only be partially optimistic. Why is that? On the upside, the 208 I is the biggest selling car in Peugeot’s fleet, selling more than its SUVs 2008, 3008, 4008 or 5008. The manufacturer sold more 208 both in 2017 and in 2018 than 308 and 408 combined! Yet on the downside, the manufacturer sold 9.8% less first-gen 208 than in 2017, while sales of its bigger SUVs 3008 and 5008 rose by 17.1% and 27% respectively. Overall sales (including the commercial fleet) declined by 17.9% compared to 2017. If the 208 II will be a true game changer or just another continuation of the 2-series’ slow decline remains to be seen – and it will be seen starting this June.

So what’s the agenda for the prudent investor this fall? Everyone who considers investing in Peugeot should watch the 208 II sales very closely this fall. If the manufacturer manages to reverse the trend of declining sales of the 2-series, it could significantly boost the company’s overall earnings as the series still remains Peugeot’s top seller. That the macro-trend of the market favors SUVs over hatchbacks and sedans should also be considered.

Disclosure: I/we have no positions in any stocks mentioned, and no plans to initiate any positions within the next 72 hours. I wrote this article myself, and it expresses my own opinions. I am not receiving compensation for it (other than from Seeking Alpha). I have no business relationship with any company whose stock is mentioned in this article.


If you turned 70½ last year, don’t miss this key April 1 deadline

If you turned 70½ in 2018 and you still haven’t taken your first required minimum distribution from your individual retirement account, you’re almost out of time.

The IRS requires individuals holding retirement accounts such as IRAs and 401(k) plans to start taking withdrawals from those accounts by April 1 in the year after they’ve turned 70½.

Each of these distributions is also taxable, so savers must also prepare to pay Uncle Sam.

After you’ve made that first distribution, you must take subsequent RMDs in the following years by Dec. 31.

show chapters
Keys to taking your required minimum distribution

Key tips for taking your required minimum distribution    5:17 PM ET Wed, 19 Dec 2018 | 01:22

That means savers who are just now taking their 2018 distribution this spring must take a second withdrawal — this time for 2019 — by the end of this year.

Failure to take the RMDs by the required date will result in a 50 percent excise tax on the amount you should have withdrawn.

“The deadline for people who turned 70½ last year is less than a week away,” said Martin Schamis, head of wealth planning at Janney Montgomery Scott, a broker-dealer in Philadelphia.

“Once those RMDs begin, you don’t really have much control over whether you take them or not,” he said. “There isn’t a lot you can do to lessen the tax hit that might be associated.”

Here’s what you should know if you’re new to these mandatory retirement account withdrawals.

Calculation flubs

Kristian Sekulic | E+ | Getty Images

Perhaps the easiest way to botch your first RMD is to mistakenly take the wrong amount.

Let’s say that you own multiple IRAs and hold multiple 401(k) accounts at different employers.

In that case, you need to calculate the RMD for each IRA separately each year. You can however, withdraw the total amount from just one of your IRAs.

As for the 401(k) plans, you must calculate and take the RMD from each plan.

“You can’t take money from an IRA to satisfy an RMD on a 401(k),” said Ed Slott, CPA and founder of Ed Slott & Co. in Rockville Centre, New York.

Doubling up distributions

show chapters
How retirees can avoid costly required minimum distribution penalties

How retirees can avoid costly required minimum distribution penalties    9:58 AM ET Mon, 4 Dec 2017 | 02:20

One error married couples tend to make is to take the distribution for both spouses from one account, said Slott.

For instance, a husband with a large IRA might try to take the RMD for himself and his wife from that account, instead of letting her withdraw from her own IRA.

More from Fixed Income Strategies:
Why advisors are bullish on real estate for steady cash
This is why ‘super savers’ are retiring earlier than most
Medicare won’t cover this key expense

This move isn’t permitted. Each spouse must take the RMD from his or her own respective account.

“In this case, all the husband did was take too much from his IRA and not enough from his wife’s account — and now she’s subject to the 50 percent penalty,” said Slott.

The No.1 misconception

WHL | Getty Images

Here’s a question just about everyone asks, according to Slott. “Why not put the RMD in a Roth IRA? You’ve already paid the taxes.”

You can’t. The IRS forbids savers from reinvesting RMDs into tax-advantaged retirement accounts.

That doesn’t preclude you from using those funds for other tax-planning plays, though.

Qualified charitable distribution: One way to avoid the tax hit on the RMD is to give the cash directly to charity through a qualified charitable distribution, said Schamis. This is only applicable to IRAs. The money you donate is excluded from your taxable income.

Pay the taxes on a Roth conversion: Maybe you want to convert other IRA funds to a Roth IRA after you’ve withdrawn your RMD. In this case, you can use the RMD money to pay the taxes on the conversion, Slott said.

Just remember that the RMD funds themselves cannot be converted to a Roth IRA.

Fund your taxable accounts: It’s beneficial for retirees to build savings in different accounts — taxable, tax-free and tax-deferred — so that they have the option of adjusting their retirement income and managing their tax brackets in the future.

You can’t put your RMD into an IRA or a Roth IRA, but you can sock it in a taxable brokerage account and allow it to grow.

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Top Blue Chip Stocks For 2019

&l;p&g;&l;img class=&q;dam-image shutterstock size-large wp-image-1106738453&q; src=&q;×0.jpg?fit=scale&q; data-height=&q;640&q; data-width=&q;960&q;&g; Shutterstock

What if I told you there&a;rsquo;s a way you can buy your favorite blue chips and get a dividend &l;i&g;up to 6 times bigger&l;/i&g; than what these stocks pay today?

Let&a;rsquo;s be honest: with an income stream like that, backed by household names like &l;b&g;Pfizer &l;/b&g;and &l;b&g;AT&a;amp;T&l;/b&g;&a;mdash;more on these two stocks below&a;mdash;you&a;rsquo;d leap at the chance, right?

The truth is, you&a;rsquo;d be crazy not to.

Well, now you can. And today I&a;rsquo;m going to show you exactly how to do it&a;mdash;and 2 quick moves to get you there instantly.

&l;b&g;Like Buying Cheap in 2009 &a;hellip; and Knowing What Happens Next&l;/b&g;

Funny thing is, for a brief, shining moment in the not-so-distant past (early March 2009), many blue chips actually &l;i&g;did&l;/i&g; deliver payouts of 7%, 10% and more.

Top Blue Chip Stocks For 2019: Freshpet, Inc.(FRPT)

Advisors’ Opinion:

  • [By Logan Wallace]

    Freshpet (NASDAQ:FRPT) – Research analysts at William Blair reduced their Q2 2018 earnings estimates for shares of Freshpet in a research note issued to investors on Monday, May 7th. William Blair analyst J. Andersen now expects that the company will post earnings per share of ($0.09) for the quarter, down from their prior forecast of ($0.04). William Blair also issued estimates for Freshpet’s Q4 2018 earnings at $0.10 EPS and FY2018 earnings at ($0.07) EPS.

  • [By Max Byerly]

    Shares of Freshpet Inc (NASDAQ:FRPT) have been assigned a consensus rating of “Buy” from the eleven research firms that are presently covering the firm, Marketbeat Ratings reports. Five analysts have rated the stock with a hold recommendation, three have issued a buy recommendation and two have given a strong buy recommendation to the company. The average 12 month price objective among brokerages that have covered the stock in the last year is $20.60.

  • [By Jon C. Ogg]

    Freshpet Inc. (NASDAQ: FRPT) was maintained as Neutral but the target price was raised to $36 from $32 at Credit Suisse.

    Harpoon Therapeutics Inc. (NASDAQ: HARP) was started as Outperform and assigned a $23 price target (versus a $17.01 close) at Wedbush Securities.

  • [By Motley Fool Transcribers]

    Freshpet Inc  (NASDAQ:FRPT)Q4 2018 Earnings Conference CallFeb. 26, 2019, 4:30 p.m. ET

    Prepared Remarks Questions and Answers Call Participants
    Prepared Remarks:


Top Blue Chip Stocks For 2019: Alaska Air Group, Inc.(ALK)

Advisors’ Opinion:

  • [By Adam Levine-Weinberg]

    The oil rally has cooled off this month, over recent reports that have alleviated investors’ worries about a serious oil shortage. Lower jet fuel prices should help all of the airlines, but two could benefit disproportionately: Spirit Airlines (NYSE:SAVE) and Alaska Air (NYSE:ALK).

  • [By Adam Levine-Weinberg]

    The last couple of years have not been kind to JetBlue Airways (NASDAQ:JBLU) and Alaska Air Group (NYSE:ALK). Rising fuel prices have pinched profitability across the U.S. airline industry, but due to competitive dynamics and other factors, JetBlue and Alaska have had more trouble offsetting these cost headwinds than some other carriers.

  • [By Todd Shriber, ETF Professor]

    The analyst highlighted American Airlines Group Inc. (NASDAQ: AAL), Delta Airlines Inc. (NYSE: DAL), Southwest Airlines Co. (NYSE: LUV) and Alaska Air Group Inc. (NASDAQ: ALK) as among the industry's best-positioned names. The quartet combines for over 38 percent of JETS' roster.

Top Blue Chip Stocks For 2019: Sarepta Therapeutics, Inc.(SRPT)

Advisors’ Opinion:

  • [By ]

    Some of my readers may know Sarepta (Nasdaq: SRPT) well. This $9 billion gene-therapy company already has an FDA-approved product. Exondys 51, the first-ever FDA-approved treatment for a rare but deadly genetic disease called Duchenne muscular dystrophy (DMD), is already on the market. And just last month, the FDA granted priority review for SRPT’s second treatment for DMD, golodirsen, for DMD patients with a different genetic mutation.


    For the details of ETF Portfolio Partners, Inc.’s stock buys and sells, go to

    These are the top 5 holdings of ETF Portfolio Partners, Inc.Vanguard Total Stock Market (VTI) – 194,472 shares, 17.91% of the total portfolio. Shares added by 1.13%iShares Core U.S. Aggregate Bond (AGG) – 254,189 shares, 17.72% of the total portfolio. Shares added by 3.15%iShares Russell 1000 (IWB) – 98,181 shares, 9.78% of the total portfolio. Shares added by 0.56%Vanguard FTSE Developed Markets (VEA) – 322,914 shares, 9.08% of the total portfolio. Shares added by 1.20%iShares S&P 500 Value (IVE) – 108,531

  • [By Keith Speights]

    Three biotech stocks — Solid Biosciences (NASDAQ:SLDB), Sarepta Therapeutics (NASDAQ:SRPT), and Heron Therapeutics (NASDAQ:HRTX) — soared this week by 30% or more thanks to news that brought smiles to investors’ faces. Here’s what drove these stocks higher and whether or not they’re smart picks to buy now.

  • [By Angelica LaVito]

    CAMBRIDGE, Mass.,June 19, 2018 (GLOBE NEWSWIRE) –Sarepta Therapeutics, Inc. (NASDAQ:SRPT), a commercial-stage biopharmaceutical company focused on the discovery and development of precision genetic medicine to treat rare neuromuscular diseases, announced that at the Company’s R&D Day,Jerry Mendell, M.D. of Nationwide Children’s Hospital presented positive preliminary results from its Phase 1/2a gene therapy clinical trial assessing AAVrh74.MHCK7.micro-Dystrophin in individuals with Duchenne muscular dystrophy (DMD). Dr. Mendell presented the following preliminary data on the first three patients enrolled in the study:

Top Blue Chip Stocks For 2019: UFP Technologies Inc.(UFPT)

Advisors’ Opinion:

  • [By Joseph Griffin]

    UFP Technologies (NASDAQ: UFPT) and China XD Plastics (NASDAQ:CXDC) are both small-cap industrial products companies, but which is the better business? We will contrast the two companies based on the strength of their dividends, valuation, analyst recommendations, institutional ownership, risk, profitability and earnings.

  • [By Ethan Ryder]

    Media coverage about UFP Technologies (NASDAQ:UFPT) has trended somewhat positive recently, Accern Sentiment Analysis reports. The research group identifies positive and negative press coverage by reviewing more than twenty million blog and news sources. Accern ranks coverage of publicly-traded companies on a scale of negative one to positive one, with scores closest to one being the most favorable. UFP Technologies earned a daily sentiment score of 0.03 on Accern’s scale. Accern also assigned headlines about the industrial products company an impact score of 47.0533500754779 out of 100, meaning that recent press coverage is somewhat unlikely to have an impact on the company’s share price in the near future.

  • [By Logan Wallace]

    China XD Plastics (NASDAQ: CXDC) and UFP Technologies (NASDAQ:UFPT) are both small-cap basic materials companies, but which is the better stock? We will compare the two companies based on the strength of their profitability, analyst recommendations, dividends, institutional ownership, earnings, risk and valuation.

The Week Ahead: New Technical Warnings?

&l;p&g;&l;img class=&q;dam-image getty size-large wp-image-1074417130&q; src=&q;×0.jpg?fit=scale&q; data-height=&q;640&q; data-width=&q;960&q;&g; US Federal Reserve Board Chairman Jerome Powell (Photo credit should read JIM WATSON/AFP/Getty Images)

It was another wild FOMC-inspired week in the stock market. Things started off slow, as by Wednesday&a;rsquo;s close, the S&a;amp;P 500 was pretty much unchanged. The comments from Fed Chair Powell about no rate hikes this year did cause some selling late Wednesday, but Wednesday&s;s loss of 0.29% did not erase Monday&a;rsquo;s gain. But chaos reigned on Thursday and Friday. Thursday, the stock market opened strong and the S&a;amp;P 500 closed up 1.09%, but the bullishness did not last long. The S&a;amp;P gapped lower on the open Friday, and closed down 1.90% for the day as it settled just above 2800.

&l;img class=&q;size-full wp-image-20885&q; src=&q;; alt=&q;&q; data-height=&q;213&q; data-width=&q;958&q;&g;

For the week, the small cap Russell 2000 led the market lower, losing just over 3%, followed by a 2.5% decline in the Dow Jones Transportation Average. The Dow Jones Industrial Average was down 1.34%, while the S&a;amp;P 500 was down 0.77%.

All of the market averages are still showing nice YTD gains, with the Nasdaq 100 leading the pack, up 15.8% after it actually closed higher last week. From my perspective, though, the most important consideration is whether there were any changes in the technical outlook.

&l;img class=&q;size-full wp-image-20886&q; src=&q;; alt=&q;&q; data-height=&q;745&q; data-width=&q;863&q;&g;

Spyder Trust (SPY) has a new high for the year last week at $285.18, but then closed lower at $279.25. The weekly S&a;amp;P 500 &l;a href=&q;; target=&q;_blank&q;&g;advance/decline line&l;/a&g; made a new high the week ending March 1&l;sup&g;, &l;/sup&g;but failed to make a new high last week creating a potential bearish or negative divergence.

A drop in the A/D line below the most recent low (point c) will confirm the divergence. It is positive that the Weighted Moving Average of the A/D line is still rising strongly. There is next good support at the former downtrend (line a), which is in the $274 area. The rising 20-week EMA is at $270.91.

&l;img class=&q;size-full wp-image-20887&q; src=&q;; alt=&q;&q; data-height=&q;745&q; data-width=&q;889&q;&g;

For the past two weeks, the Invesco QQQ Trust (QQQ) has been leading the SPY higher. It made a convincing new high at $182.83 last week but then closed at $178.56. This was 2.3% below the high. The 20-week EMA is rising and now at $169.55.

The weekly Nasdaq 100 A/D line did not make a new high last week, but is not far below the high from March 1. The daily Nasdaq 100 A/D line (not shown) made a new high on Thursday March 21, and did not form any divergences. It is still above its WMA.

&l;img class=&q;size-full wp-image-20888&q; src=&q;; alt=&q;&q; data-height=&q;792&q; data-width=&q;900&q;&g;

Some of the other A/D lines are also giving a mixed picture. The daily chart of the NYSE Composite shows its close below the 20-day EMA with next strong support at 12,400 (line a). The NYSE All A/D line did make a new high with prices last week, and is still above its rising WMA and support (line b).

The NYSE Stocks Only A/D line peaked on February 22 and has since formed lower highs (indicated by line c). The A/D line closed Friday below its WMA and a drop below the support (line d) would be more negative.

The weekly Russell 2000 A/D line (not shown), which tracks the iShares Russell 2000 (IWM), is declining but is still above its WMA. The daily Russell A/D line (not shown) failed to move above its WMA last week and has now dropped sharply. The weekly and daily Dow Industrial Advance/Decline lines (not shown) are both still positive, and do not show any divergences.

In terms of sentiment, the latest survey of the American Association of Individual Investors revealed that the Bearish-% dropped 7.6 points to 23.4%. This sudden drop in bearish sentiment is consistent with a short-term pullback. But the Bullish-% is at 37.3%, which is close to the long term average and down from the March 1 high at 41.63%. This indicates that there is no sign of serious market weakness based on the sentiment data.

&l;img class=&q;size-full wp-image-20889&q; src=&q;; alt=&q;&q; data-height=&q;396&q; data-width=&q;900&q;&g;

Even more important to the outlook for the economy and the stock market is the consumer sentiment. The University of Michigan Consumer Sentiment closed in February at 93.8, but the mid-month reading was 97.8 which was a nice improvement. There is major support in the 87.20-88 area (line a). A drop below this level would be negative for stocks and the economy.

The other economic data last week was mixed to slightly positive overall, but the focus Friday was on the brief inversion of the yield curve, as the yield on the 10-Year T-Note fell below the 3-month T-Bill yield.

&l;img class=&q;size-full wp-image-20890&q; src=&q;; alt=&q;&q; data-height=&q;397&q; data-width=&q;915&q;&g;

According to the &l;a href=&q;; target=&q;_blank&q;&g;Cleveland Federal Reserve&l;/a&g; &a;ldquo;an inverted yield curve (short rates above long rates) indicates a recession in about a year, and yield curve inversions have preceded each of the last seven recessions&a;rdquo;. Their probability chart highlights the past seven recessions, and they allow you to track the probability point by point. From October 2006 through March 2007 the probability rose from 19.1% to 34.3%.

This week, there is a &l;a href=&q;;amp;month=3&a;amp;year=2019&a;amp;cust=us&a;amp;lid=0&q; target=&q;_blank&q;&g;full economic calendar&l;/a&g;, including reports on Consumer Confidence and GDP, as well as the final monthly rating on the University of Michigan Consumer Sentiment. But for the full schedule, see the calendar. There should be plenty of data to support either a bullish or bearish market outlook by the end of the week.

The formation of the weekly and daily divergences in three of the key advance/decline lines does favor a very cautious strategy for traders. These technical warnings should not be ignored. If these divergences are confirmed by a drop below the early March lows, then a more serious multi-week decline is more likely. The bullish readings from the monthly A/D lines indicates that even longer lasting correction should be a buying opportunity.

Those who followed the four-week dollar-cost averaging plan I recommended &l;a href=&q;;&g;before Christmas&l;/a&g;, are still 75% long at an average price of 2497 based on the S&a;amp;P 500. On February 25, 25% of the position was sold when the S&a;amp;P 500 moved above 2805.

As a stop on the position, sell the remaining position if the S&a;amp;P 500 has a weekly close below 2597, which is the QPivot.

In my &l;a href=&q;; target=&q;_blank&q;&g;Viper ETF Report&l;/a&g; and the &l;a href=&q;; target=&q;_blank&q;&g;Viper Hot Stocks Report&l;/a&g;, I provide my A/D line analysis twice each week with specific buy and sell advice. New subscribers also receive six trading lessons.


What Wall Street Gets Wrong About the Inverted Yield Curve

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Keith Fitz-GeraldKeith Fitz-Gerald

Things that’ll be “different this time” usually aren’t, especially when it comes to hot stoves, hot steering wheels, and hot bond markets. Touch ’em and you’ll get burned, or so goes the thinking.

Every once in a while, though, the situation plays out.

Take the inverted yield curve that caused last Friday’s vicious selloff and made countless headlines around the world when it happened for the first time since 2007.

Contrary to what Wall Street and legions of economists want you to believe, it may NOT be the harbinger of doom that it’s been for the past 50 years.

Here’s my case (and what to buy if you’re interested in big profits).

An Outdated Predictor

First, let’s set the stage.

If you’ve never heard of an “inverted yield curve” or you’re uncertain exactly what one is, you’re not alone. In fact, I know a lot of professionals who can’t explain yield curves properly.

What you need to understand is actually pretty simple.

The “yield curve” is a very specialized economic indicator based on the comparison between short-term risks and longer-term risks, as reflected by the rates of return associated with them over time.

Normally, there’s an upward slope because longer-term investments are riskier than shorter-term investments, because of the time involved so your required rate of return is higher. But every once in a while, the curve “inverts” – meaning that short-term risks become higher than longer-term risks.

When that happens like it did last Friday, the “curve” goes from this…

To this…

Now, here’s the part that will get me uninvited from every Wall Street cocktail party for the next 200 years… yield curves have zero predictive capacity whatsoever.

Financial heresy?

Not really. Yield curves simply show you what the market thinks about how inflation is being managed and where interest rates are headed.

Free Book: Discover 61 ways to potentially triple or quadruple your monthly income. To learn how to claim your copy of “The Book of Crazy Big Income” at no cost, click here now…

The other thing to think about is that there are lots of curves, not just one. So blanket statements like there’s been “an inverted yield curve today” really don’t amount to a hill of beans.

For instance, you can construct a yield curve of 3-month treasury bills and 10-year notes, or 10-year notes and 30-year notes. You can even construct cross-currency curves to compare rates in different countries or regions as a means of assessing economic prospects around the world

The most popular curve – and the most widely reported – is the 2-year versus 10-year which hasn’t yet inverted but is very close, as I type. Last week’s inversion, in fact, was actually between the 3-month rates and 10-year yields.

What does that tell you?

Again, not much.

It’s circumstantial evidence at best. If anything, the yield curve is merely flattening and – ta da – the markets can have plenty of positive performance with a “flat” yield curve – meaning long and short term rates are nearly equal.

Which brings me back to where we started.

Now, Why You SHOULDN’T Worry About The Inverted Yield Curve

Join the conversation. Click here to jump to comments…

Keith Fitz-GeraldKeith Fitz-Gerald

About the Author

Browse Keith’s articles | View Keith’s research services

Keith Fitz-Gerald has been the Chief Investment Strategist for the Money Morning team since 2007. He’s a seasoned market analyst with decades of experience, and a highly accurate track record. Keith regularly travels the world in search of investment opportunities others don’t yet see or understand. In addition to heading The Money Map Report, Keith runs High Velocity Profits, which aims to get in, target gains, and get out clean, and he’s also the founding editor of Straight Line Profits, a service devoted to revealing the “dark side” of Wall Street… In his weekly Total Wealth, Keith has broken down his 30-plus years of success into three parts: Trends, Risk Assessment, and Tactics – meaning the exact techniques for making money. Sign up is free at

… Read full bio

The 2 Huge Stories I'm Watching This Week

There are two big stories to watch in the stock market right now. 

One involves the Federal Reserve… 

…and the other involves Lyft, Uber, Pinterest, and other tech companies expected to complete initial public offerings (IPOs) in the near future. 

First, let’s look at the Fed, which recently announced some changes in their outlook. 

Story #1: The Fed
Just three months ago, their forecast indicated we should expect two more interest rate hikes before the end of 2019. Last week, that changed, and the forecast now is for no additional rate hikes this year. 

That indicates the Fed believes the economy will slow, and their forecasts for economic growth confirmed that. GDP is now expected to grow 2.1% this year, a cut of 0.2% from the December forecast. 

The Fed also announced changes to its plans for drawing down its balance sheet. During the financial crisis, the Fed’s balance sheet increased from less than $1 trillion to more than $4 trillion. In the past year, they have been selling off assets to bring the balance sheet down to a normal level. 

They had been selling $50 billion worth of securities a month. Sales will now be reduced to just $35 billion a month in May, with a halt coming in September. These changes are designed to boost economic growth and are consistent with the Fed’s forecast for slow growth. 

Notably, in bond markets, traders reacted by creating an inverted yield curve. 

Normally, rates on long-term bonds are higher than rates on short-term debt. For example, you pay a higher interest rate on a five-year car loan than a three-year car loan. As the economy slows, the rates on Treasury securities inverts with rates on short-term Treasuries being higher than on long-term Treasuries. 

Last Friday, the rate on six-month T-bills was 2.46%. The rate on five-year Treasuries was 2.24%, and the rate on 10-years was 2.44%. The curve is inverted from six months to 10 years, an indicator that a recession is likely. 

Stock prices often fall during recessions, and the average bear market in a recession results in a loss of more than 30% in the S&P 500. 

The Fed’s stance and the yield curve tell us that a stock market decline is likely. 

Story #2: IPOs Could Be Sending A Bearish Message
The second big story — all those IPOs — is further confirmation of what the Fed and inverted yield curve have already told us… In short, that a large number of IPOs can signal a top. 

There is an excellent paper by Kevin Lapham of Ned Davis Research that won the Charles H. Dow Award for 2009. It’s called, “Using IPOs to Identify Sector Opportunities,” which you can read here. In short, it suggests that a large number of IPOs could signal a peak in the market… 

The theory behind the success of this indicator is twofold. First, investor sentiment can be gauged by the number of IPOs brought to market. Companies, venture capitalists, and investment banks will not benefit from the issuance of new shares unless there is ample investor interest in such an offering. 

In studies by Norman G. Fosback, he stated “Companies sell stock to the public primarily when they need capital for expansion and related purposes. This usually occurs when business prospects are bright and companies view their stocks as generously priced by the market.” 

This can only happen effectively when investor sentiment is bullish and stock prices have been rising. 

Second, the number of IPOs provides a measure of supply and demand. Fosback also stated… 

The new source of supply introduced into the market’s supply-demand equation also has the effect of diverting investment funds away from other stocks, thus exerting downward pressure on prices. 

Since stocks in a sector typically move in concert with one another, a number of IPOs within the same sector that begin to falter due to lack of buying interest and excess supply will weigh on all stocks in that sector. 

In that paper is an excellent and timely example showing the relationship between the tech sector IPOs and the tech-heavy NASDAQ 100 Index. 

IPOs vs Tech crash
Source: “Using IPOs to Identify Sector Opportunities” 

In the chart above, you can see that the number of IPOs and prices peaked at almost the same time. Lapham noted (emphasis mine)… 

A clear example of investor exuberance related to a specific market sector is that associated with the Year 2000 tech bubble. In 1999, this sector outperformed all others with record momentum and an astounding 140% annual return. 

An emerging internet/tech industry could not have existed without the huge investor appetite for shares of new issues. This unrestrained enthusiasm drove prices to unforeseen levels, resulting in one of the worst bubbles in decades. 

The lower clip illustrates the spike in the number of technology IPOs per month in February 2000 (indicated by a down arrow). The solid line in the upper chart clip represents the NASDAQ-100 Index bubble top (indicated by an up arrow). 

This is an unmistakable example of an increase in the number of IPOs correctly forecasting a bearish outcome which was realized after the year 2000. 

What does all this mean?

Well, we could be seeing history repeat itself. Lyft’s IPO is expected this week. Pinterest and Uber are expected to complete IPOs in April. Later this year, the data mining company Palantir is expected to complete its IPO along with Airbnb, Rackspace, Slack, Robin Hood, Peloton, and Cloud Fare. These tech companies are valued at more than $200 billion. 

It’s important to remember that IPOs involve early investors selling to the public. This could happen when the early investors believe that prices are likely to decline in the short term. It is unlikely the smart money behind these tech firms is attempting to redistribute income from the wealthy (which includes them) to the less wealthy (which includes us). It’s more likely the smart money is trying to get out at the top. 

Action To Take
In other words, the Fed and Silicon Valley seem to agree that the stock market is ready for a decline. This echoes a theme I’ve been writing about for weeks now, and it’s also confirmed by momentum in major stock market averages. 

In my opinion, now is the time to focus on preserving capital with conservative trades or the purchase of put options. That’s exactly what my Profit Amplifier readers and I are doing. In fact, we’ve placed a number of trades recently that could deliver significant gains when a stock moves up or down. And thanks to our strategy, we’re able to turn moves of just a few percentage points into gains of 10.4%, 58.9%, and even 60% or more in a matter of days. 

As the market gets more and more uncertain, I can’t think of a better strategy for investors who want to protect their portfolio — and also profit. If you’d like to know more about our strategy — and get your hands on what could be the biggest trade of the year — check out this briefing.