Tag Archives: Markets

Watch Out For Near-Term Weakness In Nordstrom

Shares of Nordstrom, Inc. (NSYE: JWN) got an 8 percent pop on Feb. 23 on news that the Nordstrom family was finalizing an offer to take the company private. 

But upon the company board's rejection of the proposal on March 5 and subsequent and termination of discussions, the stock has consolidated even tighter than it had been. 

Since that rejection by the board, shares of JWN have traded in a range of $46-$52. That's a $6 range over the course of 45 trading days. Very tight consolidation. 

Typically, stocks that consolidate for a period will eventually breakout to the upside or downside. While we won't know which way that'll be until that happens, we can take clues from its recent action. 

The following charts are courtesy of VantagePoint, an AI platform that uses intermarket analysis to predict future price action between 1-3 days in advance. 

First, a couple of things to note on these charts:

The gray candle represents a predicted range for JWN's price action on Friday, May 4. 
The blue line is what we're focusing on here. That's a prediction of where the stock's 6-day moving average will be.
The black line is a simple 10-day moving average. When the black line crosses below the blue line, that's a bearish signal. 
3 Days Out

On this 1-month chart, the blue line is predicting what JWN's 6-day moving average will be three days in advance. Notice how the blue line is creeping closer to the black line. This is potentially bearish, but we need to see more. 

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2 Days Out

On this chart, the blue line predicts JWN's 6-day moving average two days in advance. Here we can see that the blue and black lines have converged. Not what you want to see if you're a bull.

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1 Day Out

Here, the blue line is predicting JWN's 6-day SMA at the next day's close. The two lines have already crossed over on Tuesday, indicating that JWN is in for immediate weakness. 

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As of publication, shares of Nordstrom were trading down 1 percent during Friday's session. They are due to report their Q1 earnings on May 17 after the market close. 

Vantagepoint is a content partner of Benzinga

Despite An Earnings Beat, Shares Of FedEx Are Continuing To Look Weak In The Near Term

Based on FedEx Corporation's (NYSE: FDX) most recent earnings report, you'd think the stock would be performing better. 

Not only did the company report an Earnings Per Share figure of $3.72 compared to the consensus estimate of $3.12, their sales figure of $16.5 billion also exceeded Wall Street's estimate at $16.15 billion. 

Beyond that, their EPS guidance estimate for the fiscal year came in at $15-$15.40, a huge beat of the $13.61 estimate. 

Strong EPS, sales, and guidance? That's usually a recipe for stocks to move higher. But not in this case. 

Since its earnings report after the close on March 20, FDX is down about 4 percent. And it only looks to be getting weaker. 

The charts below show this. They come courtesy of VantagePoint, an AI platform that uses intermarket analysis to predict future price action between 1-3 days in advance. 

Both of the following charts show FDX over the last three months with each candle representing a day. We're focusing on the blue line, that's a predicted moving average. 

In the first chart, the blue line is serving as a prediction four 48 hours in advance. Notice how that line crossed below the black line—a simple 10-day moving average—on April 24. That was the start of the most recent bearish trend. 

In other words, since April 24 VantagePoint has been predicting FDX's 6-day moving average would be lower in 48 hours than it currently is. 

 

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This next chart shows pretty much the same thing, but a little farther out. Instead of predicting FDX's 6-day moving average 48 hours out, it predicts it 72 hours out.

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Note the trend shift on May 1. That's a stronger confirmation because it's telling us the stock will be weak until at least next Tuesday's close. 

On top of that we have the red-green bar at the bottom of the chart. That's a Neural Index that measures strength and weakness for a 48-hour period. In this case, the move to the red position further makes the case for a potentially bearish scenario.

As of publication shares of FDX were trading flat from Thursday's close. 

 

VantagePoint is a content partner of Benzinga. For a live demo click here

Fed Flags Gradual Rate Hikes: Who Stands To Gain?

The Federal Reserve has kept its key interest rate steady this month but has acknowledged that prices of essential commodities are inching up to desired range, paving the way for gradual rate hikes in the coming months. The comeback of inflation, by the way, is very evident, with business houses paying more for labor, steel, oil and other supplies.

Fed officials also noted that economic activity continues to rise at a steady pace, while the labor market is expected to remain strong. This calls for investing in banks, insurance and brokerage houses as such institutions will see a ramp up in profits on steady interest rate hikes and stable economic conditions.

Inflation Crawls Higher

As widely expected, the Fed has kept its benchmark short-term interest rate at a range of 1.5-1.75% this month. The central bank had lifted interest rate by a quarter percentage point in March for the sixth time since late 2015.

The Fed, however, reiterated that it is committed to raising rates gradually. After all, core inflation is expected to run near the central bank's 2% benchmark over the medium term, the FOMC statement said.

After being low for quite some time, consumer prices are picking up. The Fed's preferred PCE price index rose to a 12-month rate of 2% for the first time this year. If the volatile food and energy items are excluded, annual inflation went up to 1.9%.

Fed policymakers forecast two more rate hikes this year, per the median estimates, but faster inflation could led to more rate hikes. Traders are now seeing a 94% probability of a rate hike in June, with at least 47% predicting a total of four rate hikes this year.

Economy in Sound Shape, Labor Market Strengthens

The Fed added that "economic activity has been rising at a moderate rate", while business investment "continued to grow strongly." The economy expanded at annualized rate of 2.3% in the first quarter and topped estimates. Such encouraging growth followed a roughly 3% growth rate in the final nine months of last year. In fact, economic growth is expected to rise to 3% for the rest of this year thanks to the recently-passed tax cuts that will boost consumer as well as business spending.

Fed also said that "job gains have been strong, on average, in recent months, and the unemployment rate has stayed low." Monthly job additions averaged a solid 202,000 so far this year and jobless rate remained at a 17-year low of 4.1%. All these developments could fuel faster inflation leading to rate hikes.

Who Stands to Gain From a Rate Hike?

Higher interest rates can boost bank profits as they increase the spread between what banks earn by funding longer-term assets, such as loans, with shorter-term liabilities. The spread between long-term and short-term rates also expands during interest rate hikes because long-term rates tend to rise faster than short-term rates.

Non-banking financial institutions, including insurance companies, asset managers and brokerage firms, should also benefit. Rising rates act as a boon for insurance companies as they derive their investment income from investing premiums, which are received from policyholders in corporate and government bonds. Yields and coupons on these bonds rise in response to a hike in Fed fund rates and bank interest rates. This enables life insurers to invest premiums at higher yields and earn more, expanding their profit margins. Not only investment income, which is an important component of insurers' top line, annuity sales should gain from a raised rate.

Brokerage firms and asset managers also advantage immensely from a rising rate environment since an increase in rates generally concurs during periods of economic strength and upbeat investor sentiments.

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The preceding article is from one of our external contributors. It does not represent the opinion of Benzinga and has not been edited.

Cryptocurrencies And Taxes: What Do You Owe?

Were you tempted in 2017 by cryptocurrencies promising huge financial gains? If you did make a Bitcoin purchase, you may have done very well. The value of Bitcoin gained more than 1,200% over the year.

Your gains pose a vexing question. How are you supposed to pay taxes on your Bitcoin earnings? In large part, that depends on what you do with them.

The IRS gave limited direction in a 2014 guideline that classified cryptocurrencies as property, subjecting them to capital gains taxes instead of lumping them into ordinary income. Unfortunately, in practice there is no solid dividing line on their use. The tax rules become correspondingly complex.

There's a reason it's called a cryptocurrency. A significant number of businesses and retailers accept Bitcoin for payment. You can't normally use property in retail purchases – imagine paying for your foot-long meatball sub with a share of Apple stock. What would you receive in change?

Property, Currency, or Both?

Do you consider cryptocurrencies a form of long-term investment like stocks, a true currency, or something in-between? The further you get away from the stock analogy, the messier your taxes will be.

If you only use Bitcoin as an investment, taxation is fairly straightforward. The gains from the sale of a cryptocurrency are taxed at capital gains rates if the cryptocurrency was held for more than one year. If they were held for less than one year, the gains are taxed as ordinary income according to the correct individual tax bracket. If you lose money on the exchange, you can write off losses following the standard rules on capital losses.

However, if you use Bitcoin to purchase goods and services, the taxation on that Bitcoin must be treated as an individual sale of that Bitcoin (true for all cryptocurrencies). Let's assume the Bitcoin you used to buy that meatball sub has twice the value of the original purchase price of that Bitcoin. You now owe taxes on the 100% gain in value of the Bitcoin that you just cashed in. On the bright side, if your Bitcoin dropped in value, you have a tax loss to write off.

Multiply this complexity over hundreds of ordinary daily transactions throughout the year, and it becomes very difficult to accurately assess the cryptocurrency taxes that you owe.

If part of your cryptocurrency income comes from an employer or from the direct "mining" of Bitcoins, it will be treated as regular income – whether or not there is an employer's W-2 form involved to verify the income. If you are self-employed, you are also responsible for the self-employment tax on that income. Income will be based on the dollar value at the time of receipt/mining.

Clear as mud, isn't it? We haven't even gotten into subjects such as foreign exchanges using cryptocurrency, or the fact that many cryptocurrency exchanges have no available records for the government to examine. It's hard to tell if the money totals don't add up when there are sources that you can't reach.

The Government Will Catch Up… Eventually

According to Tom Lee, a Wall Street strategist with Fundstrat Global Advisors, the collective cryptocurrency market gained $590 billion in total value last year and estimated that $187 billion of that growth is US-based.Lee calculates 2017 cryptocurrency taxes owed by US taxpayers at around $25 billion.

Meanwhile, from 2013 to 2015, the number of people recording cryptocurrency exchanges on their taxes varied between 800 and 900 taxpayers. Perhaps most people are holding onto cryptocurrencies as an investment – but that's highly unlikely.

The IRS agrees. Late last year, the agency won a court battle to subpoena records from the cryptocurrency transaction company Coinbase in order to determine taxes owed on cryptocurrency transactions between 2013 and 2015. Even with negotiated exclusions, the action could cover up to 14,000 Coinbase users and 8.9 million transactions. It's highly likely that there will be some collection of cryptocurrency back-taxes soon, with a focus on the largest dollar-equivalent volumes.

The Takeaway

The way to simplify taxes on cryptocurrencies is to treat them strictly like stocks. Keep meticulous records on purchases and sales – both for timing and valuation at the time of purchase/sale, including exchanges of one cryptocurrency for another.

Stick to that dividing line, and you have a relatively straightforward calculation of your profit/loss and the subsequent tax effects.

If you start to use Bitcoin for retail/online purchases for goods and services, you open the door to a recordkeeping nightmare. However, if you've invested in Bitcoin or other cryptocurrencies in any significant way, you're a risk-taker by definition. Which odds are worse – the chances of you correctly logging and assessing all your cryptocurrency purchases, or the odds that the IRS will catch you, given the current level of understaffing and the lack of direction?

Only you can answer that question and decide whether you intend to do the right thing to the best of your ability (our recommendation) or lay low.

Consider this as you decide – uncollected taxes on cryptocurrency are a huge pool of potential income for governments. How long do you expect them to leave that pool alone, and how far back in time do you think legislators and regulators will go to collect back taxes?

Originally Posted at: www.moneytips.com/cryptocurrencies-and-taxes-what-do-you-owe/263

The preceding article is from one of our external contributors. It does not represent the opinion of Benzinga and has not been edited.